Precios del oro, plata y platino y tendencias

STATS London Gold AM Fix $1,334.25, +$0.75 from prior AM Fix. LME Copper Stocks 273,245 tons -1,500 tons.
Gold Stocks 7.133 million ounces -579, Silver Stocks 182.483 million ounces -279,688
The Japanese Nikkei pushed into a new five week high on reports that the country’s largest pension fund is
considering greater equity market exposure as the economy moves away from deflation. Chinese shares also
finished in positive territory on a rally in property shares, supported by ideas the government may move to bolster
housing prices. The upside action in equities continued during the early European trading hours, with an added lift
coming on prospects that the ECB could take on an easier policy stance in today’s meeting. US shares were
slightly higher, with the March S&P 500 into a new contract high ahead of the Wall Street opening. There is an
active economic calendar this morning, with interest rate policy decisions due from the ECB and BOE, more US
labor market data and fresh read on January Factory Orders will also be seen.

GOLD

Gold prices eventually found some positive footing on Wednesday and after the rather sharp pullback from earlier
in the week, that might suggest the bull camp in gold has managed to retain some bullish resolve. In fact, despite
diminishing risk concerns from the Ukraine, the gold market managed to spend a lot of time in positive ground
Wednesday and that in turn seems to partially counter the recent rise in bearish sentiment. In the end, lukewarm
US economic data clearly helped bring gold up off of this week’s lows, but it should be noted that gold prices once
again lagged behind silver and platinum prices during the rally on Wednesday and they are lagging behind silver
and platinum prices again this morning. Clearly the bull camp partially regained the upper hand in the wake of
renewed evidence of slowing in the US economy yesterday and while the threat of slowing is still thought to be
transient and mostly due to the weather, seeing a lengthening string of slack US data points is starting to give
economic anxiety a fresh role in supporting gold prices. Macroeconomic slowing concerns might have been
dampened somewhat overnight by comments from the Fed’s Plosser, who suggested that the slowing was a
temporary threat. However given that US weather has remained extreme through February and even into early
March, one can hardly expect upcoming US data to show any improvement and therefore the bull camp might be
expected to come away from the Challenger Layoff report and from Jobless Claims this morning with some fresh
economic anxiety support. News of an improvement in the Indian Current account deficit, calls from another
Indian government official to “do something about the sharp escalation of gold smuggling” and talk of gold
industry protests against the Indian duty might be supportive of gold prices today, as overnight events have
shifted the political pendulum back in favor of a roll back of Indian gold import duties once again. Another factor
that might support gold today is an AMCU platinum miner’s march in Pretoria on South African government
buildings. Other positives underpinning gold prices this morning is news of gold mining strike at a Chilean Kinross
mine and news from yesterday that the US Mint has apparently decided to resume selling American Eagle Gold
coins on March 10th. Gold derivative holdings rose by almost 19,000 ounces overnight, to stand at 49.2 million
ounces. Comex Gold Stocks were 7.133 million ounces down 579 ounces. Gold remains somewhat vulnerable to
long liquidation, but there would appear to be the prospect of enough fresh evidence of slowing from the US
directly ahead, to provide some cushion to gold prices. However the bull camp has to be very discouraged by the
lack of fresh buying interest in the face of news overnight that the Crimean Parliament has voted to become part
of Russia and that a referendum will be held soon to verify that decision. The gold bulls have to hope that IMF
calls on the EU to address its deflation threat, might result in some supportive news from the EU meeting later this
morning and that US economic news later this morning also helps gold hold above this week’s key consolidation
low of $1,330.70. Aggressive traders might be bullish toward gold early, because of US data prospects, but we
would suggest the implementation of very tight stops just below this week’s lows.

SILVER

Silver remained subdued and stayed within its tightest daily trading range since late January yesterday, but it still
managed to claw out a small gain for Wednesday’s trading session. However, the silver bulls had to come away
from Wednesday’s trading action with only a minimally positive tilt, as chart action this morning is negative and
weakness in gold is weighing on silver sentiment. However, silver outperformed the gold market on the rally
yesterday and silver is out performing gold again this morning. Therefore silver might be developing a dual
capacity to benefit partially from both safe haven/macroeconomic uncertainty and or from periodic strength in the
face of a “risk on” environment, as that might result in improved physical demand. In other words, silver is
showing a unique capacity to benefit from flight to quality but it is also paying attention to the prospect of improved
physical demand. Like gold, silver has been able to respect what appears to be building consolidation support
around this week’s low of $21.025, but the fact that silver is paying some attention to classic physical commodity
market fundamentals and the ebb and flow of the global economy, might not be a positive for the market into the
coming two days of potentially slack US scheduled data flows. In short, the failure to hold support in the face of
slack data this morning could leave silver prices vulnerable, especially if today’s data fails to notably lift gold
prices. The silver market’s short-term technical indicators suggest that the trend is negative. Comex Silver Stocks
were 182.483 million ounces down 279,688 ounces. We think silver remains vulnerable to declines ahead. In fact,
the failure to hold $21.02-$21.04 in May Silver later this morning could leave the silver market without close-in
support. In other words, failing to hold $21.02 would put May Silver back into the wide trading range down pattern
that was forged on February 14th, which in turn could mean a slide all the way back down to the top of the
December through February consolidation zone of $20.63. In short, silver has to have very positive leadership
from gold in the wake of slack data early today, or the bottom might come out of sivler prices temporarily.

PLATINUM

The big winner of Wednesday’s trading session was April Platinum, which posted solid gains and rose to a new 5
1/2 month high as South African labor problems continue to provide the market with underlying support. At times
on Wednesday, platinum prices led the entire precious metals complex higher and while April Platinum wasn’t
able to hold onto all of those gains overnight, the market held enough to keep would-be sellers back on their
heels. News that miners and unions in South Africa were unable to come to a settlement fostered what might be
the first real supply-side reaction in platinum prices since December 26th. Reports earlier in the week, that
platinum mining companies had only 5 to 6 weeks of platinum reserves in place, should mean that some mining
companies will soon be unable to meet their shipments. The strain of the strike has already caused one major
South African platinum miner to reduce sales projections, and therefore it is not surprising to see platinum prices
reach up to their highest levels in over 5 months. Unfortunately for the bull camp, the outlook for the global
economy is currently sour, or the threat of significant platinum supply-side tightening would be compounded. With
the AMCU marching on South African government buildings earlier today and the US Mint announcing a restart of
platinum coin sales on March 10th, platinum has enough internal bull fundamentals to continue rising toward
$1,500. However, the biggest threat to platinum bulls today might be adverse action in gold prices. Up trend
channel support moves up to $1,450.80. Remain long but continue to use trailing stops around $1,466.

El top ten de los proyectos de cobre mundiales

Un estudio realizado por Macquarie Research espera que el crecimiento del suministro mundial de cobre primario en 2014 ronde el 7% interanual, la mayor tasa de crecimiento de la oferta en una década. Pero a pesar de varias interrupciones, en 2013 el crecimiento de la oferta sigue siendo positiva y se espera que lo siga siendo durante todo el año 2014, con un superávit cada vez mayor. Se espera que los 10 proyectos de cobre de más rápido crecimiento por sí solos para entregar hasta 1Mt de cobre adicional en 2014. La mitad de ellos son totalmente nuevas. Aquí están los 10 ( texto verde indica greenfield):

10. Salobo (Vale, Pará, Brasil)

Entró funcionamiento desde junio de 2012, la capacidad de producción es de aproximadamente 100.000 t de concentrados de cobre por año.

9. Escondida  (BHP; Antofagasta, Chile)

Escondida se encuentra a 3.100 metros sobre el nivel del mar, con un producción, en 2012, de 1.076 millones de toneladas de cobre.

 8. Bisha (Recursos Nevsun; Gash Barka, Eritrea)

Bisha cuenta con 29,3 millones de toneladas de reservas totales probadas y probables.

 7. Sierra Gorda (KGHM International, Atacama, Chile)

La producción estimada de las reservas actuales promedio 219.000 t de cobre.

 6. Toromocho (Chinalco, Junín, Perú)

Toromocho contiene una reserva de 1.526 millones de toneladas de mineral con una ley promedio de cobre de 0,48%.

5. Buenavista  (Southern Copper, Sonora, México)

Buenavista representa una de las mayores reservas de cobre en México (y el mundo), con reservas estimadas en 36 millones de toneladas de mineral con ley de 0,69% total de cobre.

4. Grasberg  (Freeport-McMoRan, Papua, Indonesia)

Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (NYSE: FCX) Indonesia Grasberg

La tercera mayor mina de cobre del mundo, se espera que Grasberg para entregar más de 100 kt de cobre contenido en concentrados.

3. Oyu Tolgoi (Rio Tinto; Khanbogd, Mongolia)

Se espera que el gigante de Oyu Tolgoi a representar hasta el 30% del PIB y se espera que la producción de cobre de Mongolia para llegar a 450 kt por año.

2. Collahuasi  (Anglo American, Atacama, Chile)

Collahuasi representa una de las mayores reservas de cobre en Chile y en el mundo, con reservas estimadas en 3930 millones de toneladas de mineral con una ley de 0,66% de cobre.

1. Minas Ministro Hales (Codelco; Antofagasta, Chile)

Se espera Mina Ministro Hales de entregar un 170 kt adicionales de cobre contenido en concentrado de 2013-2014, año contra año.

 

 

Fuentes: Mackenzie Madera; Macquarie Research, YouTube; LatinMineria.com, el sitio web de cada una de las 10 empresas con nombre: Vale, BHP, Nevsun, Quadra FNX, Chinalco, Southern Copper, Freeport McMoRan, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Codelco

Cobre Market Forecast 2013-2014: la producción llegará a 18,6 millones de toneladas

ImagenLa International Copper Study Group (ICSG)  se reunió en Lisboa, Portugal entre el 30 de septiembre y 1 de octubre de 2013 y presentó su proyecciones para el mercado del cobre, tanto demanda como oferta para 2014

Los delegados gubernamentales y asesores de la industria de cobre más importantes del mundo se reunieron para discutir temas clave que afectan el mercado mundial del cobre . En su reunión de la Comisión de Estadística , la vista ICSG del equilibrio mundial de la producción de cobre refinado y su uso se ha desarrollado.

Se espera un fuerte crecimiento continúe en 2014 y 2015 proyectos mineros que quedaron postergadas o retrasaron durante la crisis financiera se espera que comience a punto de realizarse . Se espera que las expansiones y nuevas empresas de proyectos durante 2013 y 2014 para aumentar mundo producción de la mina a unos 18,6 Mt (millones de toneladas ) en 2014 de 16,7 millones de toneladas en 2012 . La mayor parte de la nueva producción se espera que sea de cobre en el concentrado , con la expansión de electro sólo limitado previsto.

En el desarrollo de su equilibrio en el mercado global, ICSG utiliza un cálculo de la demanda aparente de China, el consumo global líder decobre, que representa alrededor del 40 % de la demanda mundial . La demanda de cobre aparente para China se basa únicamente en los datos de informes (producción + comercio neto + / – cambios SHFE acciones) y no tiene en cuenta los cambios en las existencias no declaradas [ Estado Reserva Bureau ( SRB) , productor, consumidor y comerciante / comerciante ] , que puede ser importante durante períodos de media o media – DE y lo que podría alterar significativamente los saldos de oferta y demanda .

Las proyecciones para 2013 indican ICSG que se espera que la producción mundial de cobre refinado para exceder la demanda de cobre refinado por aproximadamente 390.000 toneladas métricas (t) , ya que la demanda se zaga del crecimiento de la producción . Para 2014 , a pesar de una recuperación en el uso esprevisto, un mayor superávit se espera que con el aumento de la producción de los nuevos y existentes minas.
En el desarrollo de sus proyecciones , GIEC reconoció que los equilibrios de mercado globales podrían variar de aquellos proyectados , debido a numerosos factores, como la desaceleración económica mundial , los problemas de la deuda soberana de la Unión Europea , las transiciones políticas en el Oriente Oriente y África del Norte, y los déficit de producción debido a la conflictividad laboral , la utilidad y la escasez de capital , y los factores técnicos.
Después de tres años de producción relativamente estancados , se prevé que la producción minera en 2013 para aumentar en un 6,5 % de la de 2012 .
En 2013 , se espera que la producción de cobre refinado mundial aumente en un 3,9 % en comparación con el de 2012 ya que la producción limitada de mantenimiento y paradas operativas temporales en algunas regiones se ve ensombrecido por la expansión de la producción en otras regiones.
En 2014 , se espera que la producción de cobre refinado crecerá en torno al 5,5 % a 22,1 Mt con la restauración de la producción en existente plantas y capacidad nueva y ampliada en las plantas electrolíticas en China, y en menor medida las plantas SX -EW en África. Se espera que la producción de cobre refinado a crecer en alrededor del 7 % y la producción secundaria en un 2% .
GIEC prevé la demanda mundial de refinado de manifiesto en 2013 se mantienen sin cambios desde que en 2012 ( 20,5 millones de toneladas) . Aunque la demanda de bienes see espera que para el cobre en China para aumentar en un 6 % en 2013 , la demanda aparente de China ( que no ha sido corregida para no declarada
Se espera que los cambios de valores) para disminuir en 2013 , como resultado de las importaciones mucho menor refinados. Uso en el resto del mundo es espera que aumente en torno al 1% . Con mejores perspectivas para la economía mundial en el año 2014, se prevé que el uso mundial crezca en alrededor de un 4,5 % en 2014, con el mundo procedentes de China espera que crezca un 2,5 %.
En un futuro próximo GIEC tiene previsto informar a un número ajustado de la demanda para el uso de China, que tiene en cuenta los cambios en la nivel de las existencias de almacén en condiciones de servidumbre .
Próximas reuniones del GIEC
Las próximas reuniones del Grupo de Estudio se celebrará en Lisboa , Portugal, en el lunes 31 de marzo y el Martes 1 Abril 2014 y se ser seguido por un seminario conjunto de Estudio el miércoles 02 de abril 2014

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